RabbitSuit Fund
Um fundo de Bitcoin que gerimos com o nosso próprio dinheiro, reportado às claras. Fazemo-lo pela nossa disciplina, e para quem tiver curiosidade; nada disto é aconselhamento de investimento.
O objetivo: retornos como os de deter Bitcoin, com quedas muito menores pelo caminho. Julgamo-lo pelo Sharpe e pelo MAR, as pontuações ajustadas ao risco. Porquê Bitcoin →
Uma regra define a mistura todos os dias: decide quanto do fundo está em Bitcoin, entre 0% e 100%. Quando o mostrador marca 0,65, 65% do fundo está em Bitcoin. O resto fica estacionado num único outro ativo.
Esse outro ativo é um de mercado monetário, ações mundiais, ouro, o Nasdaq-100 ou dívida pública americana longa, reescolhido a cada fecho de mês por uma regra. Trocá-lo nunca altera o peso em Bitcoin.
Por cima, uma pequena posição de opções compra convexidade quando a nossa estratégia diz que vale a pena. Só pode perder o que pagou e nunca altera o peso em Bitcoin.
No backtest de 2018–2026, a janela de referência: CAGR 88%, pior drawdown -29%, Sharpe 1.85, MAR 3.02. Simulado: nenhum fundo existia então. O backtest → Inclui a posição de opções desde 3 de jul. de 2020, quando começam os seus dados de preços.
Ao vivo desde 3 de ago. de 2026 (57 dias), o fundo modelo USD · spot: +19.8%, contra +30.8% por deter Bitcoin. Curto de mais para anualizar. Os quatro fundos →
resto estacionado em o Nasdaq-100
fecho diário 2026-09-27
Os fundos modelo, em real
histórico real · transações simuladasValor desde o arranque, com um custo cobrado em cada transação simulada. A linha ténue é deter Bitcoin. Os valores anualizados aparecem quando um fundo tiver 90 dias.
Onde procurar
Como estão os quatro fundos modelo: valor, retornos e referências a cada fecho diário.
O mostrador de hoje, a repartição que implica, onde está estacionado o resto e as opções abertas.
O Bitcoin e os ativos de estacionamento: o que é cada um e como se moveu.
As regras de hoje repetidas sobre o passado, a partir de qualquer data de início.
Últimas entradas do diário
todas as entradas →One change to how the options position is funded. An options position that expires on the same day a new one would be bought still counts as money tied up when the fund checks whether the parked share can pay for the new one. Its proceeds are not used to pay for a purchase on the same day, because in the account the fund uses they are not reliably available that soon. The practical effect is that, when Bitcoin already takes up most of the fund, a new options purchase is skipped a little more often. In the historical record this skips three purchases in early 2023 and lowers the simulated return with options slightly; the figures without options do not change. The rule for when to buy, the sizes and the cap are as they were. It moves no position today and changes nothing the fund holds.
Reporting change; no rule changes. Two things. First, the fund now publishes two reference dials beside the one it follows: the dial as it would read under the rule in force before the last change, and the dial with only the four-year-average exception and no read-ahead. They are yardsticks: nothing is bought or sold on them. The read-ahead will be judged against the second one, the simpler rule it has to beat, and the yearly review reports both. Second, the wording. The read-ahead is a momentum adjustment on the fund's liquidity reading, chosen because it improved the historical record. The observation that Bitcoin tends to follow liquidity with a lag of a few months is what prompted it; the adjustment is not calculated from that lag, and earlier wording that suggested so has been corrected. Every rule, band, cap and figure the fund runs on is exactly as it was and nothing trades differently.
Two bounded changes to how the dial reads liquidity. First, when global liquidity has improved over the last three months, part of that improvement is read ahead. This is a momentum adjustment chosen from the historical record; the observation that Bitcoin tends to follow liquidity with a lag of a few months is what prompted it, not a formula it follows from. A deterioration is read as before, so the dial is never below what the old rule would say. Second, while Bitcoin's price closes below its four-year average, the liquidity haircut is not applied: at those levels the record shows the haircut costs the recovery more than it saves, and it comes back the day price closes above the average. Nothing else moves: the valuation and rotation factors, the executed dial's memory, the floor, the bands, the parking rule, the options position and every override are as they were. The rule was re-backtested over the full history before adoption and judged on return per unit of drawdown; it improves the record on every window and passes the after-tax check. It is not free of cost: in the past it would have held a material Bitcoin position through the November 2022 exchange collapse, which cost about twelve percent of the fund's value in a fortnight before the 2023 recovery more than repaid it. It makes no trade today: at the current close the new and old readings are the same number.
The fund now accounts for when Federal Reserve balance-sheet information becomes available. Historical simulations also use earlier information for the valuation reference and include ETF distributions consistently. Actual past decisions remain the fund's record. The allocation effect was checked against the production state; future rebalances follow the existing execution rules.