RabbitSuit Fund
Un fondo Bitcoin che gestiamo con il nostro denaro, raccontato in trasparenza. Lo facciamo per la nostra disciplina e per chiunque sia curioso; niente di tutto questo è consulenza d’investimento.
L’obiettivo: rendimenti simili a detenere Bitcoin, con cadute molto più piccole lungo il percorso. Lo giudichiamo su Sharpe e MAR, le misure corrette per il rischio. Perché Bitcoin →
Una regola fissa il mix ogni giorno: decide quanta parte del fondo è in Bitcoin, da 0% a 100%. Quando il quadrante segna 0,65, il 65% del fondo è in Bitcoin. Il resto è parcheggiato in un altro asset.
Quell’altro asset è uno tra liquidità (mercato monetario), azioni mondiali, oro, il Nasdaq-100 o Treasury USA lunghi, riscelto a ogni fine mese da una regola. Il cambio non modifica mai la quota in Bitcoin.
Sopra, una piccola posizione in opzioni compra convessità quando la nostra strategia dice che ne vale la pena. Può perdere solo quanto ha pagato e non cambia mai la quota in Bitcoin.
Nel backtest su 2018–2026, finestra principale: CAGR 88%, peggior drawdown -29%, Sharpe 1.85, MAR 3.02. Simulato: allora non esisteva alcun fondo. Il backtest → Include la posizione in opzioni dal 3 lug 2020, quando iniziano i suoi dati di prezzo.
Dal vivo dal 3 ago 2026 (57 giorni), il fondo modello USD · spot: +19.8%, contro +30.8% per detenere Bitcoin. Troppo breve per annualizzare. Tutti e quattro i fondi →
resto parcheggiato in il Nasdaq-100
chiusura giornaliera 2026-09-27
I fondi modello, in reale
track record reale · operazioni simulateValore dall’avvio, con un costo addebitato su ogni operazione simulata. La linea sbiadita è detenere Bitcoin. Le misure annue compaiono quando un fondo ha 90 giorni.
Dove guardare
Come stanno andando i quattro fondi modello: valore, rendimenti e riferimenti a ogni chiusura giornaliera.
Il quadrante di oggi, la ripartizione che implica, dove è parcheggiato il resto e le eventuali opzioni aperte.
Bitcoin e gli asset di parcheggio: cos’è ciascuno e come si è mosso.
Le regole di oggi rieseguite sul passato, da qualsiasi data di inizio.
Ultime voci del diario
tutte le voci →One change to how the options position is funded. An options position that expires on the same day a new one would be bought still counts as money tied up when the fund checks whether the parked share can pay for the new one. Its proceeds are not used to pay for a purchase on the same day, because in the account the fund uses they are not reliably available that soon. The practical effect is that, when Bitcoin already takes up most of the fund, a new options purchase is skipped a little more often. In the historical record this skips three purchases in early 2023 and lowers the simulated return with options slightly; the figures without options do not change. The rule for when to buy, the sizes and the cap are as they were. It moves no position today and changes nothing the fund holds.
Reporting change; no rule changes. Two things. First, the fund now publishes two reference dials beside the one it follows: the dial as it would read under the rule in force before the last change, and the dial with only the four-year-average exception and no read-ahead. They are yardsticks: nothing is bought or sold on them. The read-ahead will be judged against the second one, the simpler rule it has to beat, and the yearly review reports both. Second, the wording. The read-ahead is a momentum adjustment on the fund's liquidity reading, chosen because it improved the historical record. The observation that Bitcoin tends to follow liquidity with a lag of a few months is what prompted it; the adjustment is not calculated from that lag, and earlier wording that suggested so has been corrected. Every rule, band, cap and figure the fund runs on is exactly as it was and nothing trades differently.
Two bounded changes to how the dial reads liquidity. First, when global liquidity has improved over the last three months, part of that improvement is read ahead. This is a momentum adjustment chosen from the historical record; the observation that Bitcoin tends to follow liquidity with a lag of a few months is what prompted it, not a formula it follows from. A deterioration is read as before, so the dial is never below what the old rule would say. Second, while Bitcoin's price closes below its four-year average, the liquidity haircut is not applied: at those levels the record shows the haircut costs the recovery more than it saves, and it comes back the day price closes above the average. Nothing else moves: the valuation and rotation factors, the executed dial's memory, the floor, the bands, the parking rule, the options position and every override are as they were. The rule was re-backtested over the full history before adoption and judged on return per unit of drawdown; it improves the record on every window and passes the after-tax check. It is not free of cost: in the past it would have held a material Bitcoin position through the November 2022 exchange collapse, which cost about twelve percent of the fund's value in a fortnight before the 2023 recovery more than repaid it. It makes no trade today: at the current close the new and old readings are the same number.
The fund now accounts for when Federal Reserve balance-sheet information becomes available. Historical simulations also use earlier information for the valuation reference and include ETF distributions consistently. Actual past decisions remain the fund's record. The allocation effect was checked against the production state; future rebalances follow the existing execution rules.