Disclosure

The fund manages only its operators' own money. It has no outside investors and neither asks for nor accepts outside money. “Fund” here means a portfolio run under written rules, not a registered investment company, collective investment scheme or any other regulated vehicle. Nothing on this site is an offer to sell, or an invitation to buy, any security or asset, in any jurisdiction.

What we publish (the daily position, the model funds' value, the backtest, the journal) is a public track record. We keep it in the open because that imposes discipline, and because the process may interest anyone curious about a fully rules-based Bitcoin allocation. It is published to be checked against the claim, day by day.

Nothing on this site (pages, charts, journal entries) or in anything published elsewhere that cites it is investment, financial, trading, tax or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold Bitcoin or any other asset. The rules shown here were designed for one specific situation: our money, our risk tolerance, our time horizon. They were not designed for yours.

If you are thinking of investing in anything, do your own research and, where it matters, get advice from someone who is actually accountable to you. Decisions you make after reading this site are yours.

Figures marked backtest · simulated come from running today's rules over past data from 2012. No fund existed over that period and nothing was traded. Simulated results have well-known limits: the rules were chosen after seeing the period they are tested on, and the simulation cannot capture the trading conditions of the time.

Figures marked live record are the model funds' own value since launch, with trades simulated at the close and a cost charged. That record is young; yearly figures stay blank until it spans 90 days, because annualizing a few days of value produces a number with no information in it.

Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future ones. Bitcoin is highly volatile and has fallen more than 75% several times; a rules-based process changes the shape of that risk, not its existence. You can lose money. So can we, and the record on this site will say so if we do.

The site's inputs come from third parties (market prices, economic series, on-chain data) and are shown with the dates their publishers gave them. Feeds lag, get revised and sometimes break; the site flags stale data rather than hiding it, but everything here is provided as-is, with no warranty of accuracy or completeness. Where a figure matters to you, check it at its source.

The exact makeup of the dial (which inputs, how each is transformed, the thresholds) is not published. What is published is every result: the daily dial, the split, the record. What the fund is and how it runs →