RabbitSuitBacktest
backtest · simulatedToday's rules, R and R* alike, replayed over past data under the live rules: the dial recomputed every day, trading only when the target drifts a full step from the holding, with trading costs and fund fees charged. Fund vs holding Bitcoin vs T-bills (the compounded 3-month yield, DGS3MO, not the funds' cash ETFs). The headline window is the mature era, from 2018-04-13 on (how the eras were measured); pick another era or any date range and every number recomputes as if the fund had launched then. The small options position is included by default, with a switch to see the dial alone and a note on where its price data begin.
Nothing here was ever traded. The backtest ends Aug 2, 2026; the funds' live record starts Aug 3, 2026 — see the funds →
The options position buys convexity when the strategy calls for it. Its backtest is priced on a different venue (Deribit) from the one it trades on (IBIT) and rests on a few large payouts; live results will confirm or revise it. The fund's figures include it; the row beneath shows the dial alone, for comparison.
Headline window — the bounded institutional regime onward; starts at the measured variance break ending the 2017 mania+crash segment
| CAGR | maxDD | Sharpe | MAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fund | 77.5% | -25.8% | 2.40 | 3.01 |
| Stack (no options overlay) | 54.1% | -25.8% | 1.84 | 2.10 |
| Bitcoin hold | 28.5% | -76.7% | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| Parking rule alone | 20.4% | -19.3% | 0.90 | 1.06 |
| Fixed 35/65 mix | 28.9% | -41.2% | 0.99 | 0.70 |
Average Bitcoin share 0.32 · 28.1% of the return came from the parked share. The dial's timing is what turns the 35/65 mix into the fund.
Which asset the parked share held, sampled at month-ends with a one-day lag. Switches never touch the Bitcoin share.
Each leg line compounds only that leg's daily contribution to the fund, after its own trading costs, so the three lines multiply to roughly the fund line. Bitcoin buy-and-hold is shown as the price reference. Drag across the chart to zoom into a period; click a legend item to hide its line.
What each leg added to the fund's return, on the share the fund actually held with a one-day lag. The leg columns count each leg's daily contribution in points of value, after its own trading costs. The dial's timing is what turns the 35/65 mix into the fund.
| Year | Fund | Bitcoin leg | Parked leg | Options | Bitcoin hold | Avg. share | Parking mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018* | -12.2% | -12.2 pp | +0.1 pp | +0.0 pp | -53.4% | 0.16 | Cash 16% · Gold 7% · Nasdaq-100 77% |
| 2019 | 85.0% | +83.9 pp | +1.0 pp | +0.0 pp | 94.4% | 0.50 | Gold 41% · Nasdaq-100 34% · Long Treasuries 25% |
| 2020 | 433.2% | +301.9 pp | +41.2 pp | +90.1 pp | 304.9% | 0.65 | Cash 9% · Nasdaq-100 73% · Long Treasuries 18% |
| 2021 | 58.2% | +39.7 pp | +18.6 pp | +0.0 pp | 59.7% | 0.16 | World stocks 8% · Nasdaq-100 92% |
| 2022 | -9.1% | -7.2 pp | -8.0 pp | +6.1 pp | -64.4% | 0.10 | Cash 66% · Gold 25% · Nasdaq-100 8% |
| 2023 | 174.6% | +66.6 pp | +28.5 pp | +79.5 pp | 155.5% | 0.33 | Cash 8% · Gold 33% · Nasdaq-100 58% |
| 2024 | 72.6% | +53.5 pp | +19.1 pp | +0.0 pp | 121.2% | 0.27 | Gold 25% · Nasdaq-100 75% |
| 2025 | 47.5% | +8.0 pp | +45.2 pp | -5.7 pp | -6.3% | 0.18 | Cash 2% · Gold 98% |
| 2026* | 34.9% | -19.1 pp | +11.7 pp | +42.4 pp | -27.5% | 0.64 | Cash 3% · Gold 54% · Nasdaq-100 43% |
| window | 11648.2% | +6280.6 pp | +2460.7 pp | +2907.0 pp | 702.7% | 0.32 | parked share 28.1% of the return |
* partial year (the window's first or last).
Dashed: the same simulated value with open options counted at what they would pay out at the day's Bitcoin close instead of the price paid (no time value). Display only; the window figures and anchors read the at-cost line. The two match whenever no options are open.
Bitcoin's volatility eras
The windows above are not calendar picks. Bitcoin's daily volatility falls into six distinct eras with dated boundaries, and the fund's evaluation windows start at those boundaries.
Trailing 90-day volatility of the Bitcoin index price, annualised, log scale, 2011-01-01 to 2026-09-06. The step line is each era's own volatility, the constant-volatility model the boundaries were fitted with. Bands are numbered as in the table.
| Era | Span | Ann. vol | Worst fall within era | What it was, and how it ended | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frontier I | 2011-01-01 → 2011-11-18 | 182% | -93% | The 2011 bubble and its collapse; the era ends at the bottom near $2. |
| 2 | Frontier II | 2011-11-19 → 2014-04-15 | 116% | -71% | A one-exchange market with its own cycles (the two 2013 bubbles). Ends about six weeks after Mt Gox went bankrupt, as the dust settled. |
| 3 | Adolescence | 2014-04-16 → 2017-01-03 | 60% | -74% | The retail spot market after Mt Gox: the long 2014–15 grind and the quiet 2016 recovery. |
| 4 | Mania and crash | 2017-01-04 → 2018-04-12 | 99% | -66% | Opens the day Bitcoin spiked through its 2013 high and reversed. One segment holds the whole 2017 bubble and its violent crash. |
| 5 | Institutional grind | 2018-04-13 → 2022-11-11 | 73% | -77% | The crash runs out and a bounded, derivatives-era regime runs through COVID and the 2021 double top without a single break. |
| 6 | Modern (after FTX) | 2022-11-12 → open | 46% | -53% | FTX went bankrupt on 2022-11-11; the break is the next day, the second-strongest in the whole series. Still open. |
Read down the volatility column and you see the asset maturing: wild, then calmer, one last wild echo, then bounded, then modern.